America rode the industrial revolution to our preeminent position in the world. The industrial revolution peaked just before World War II; the postindustrial computer revolution likely peaked in 2000.
So, what’s next? Energy.
The Leapfrog Effect happens when nations without existing infrastructure skip the usual cycles of invention and innovation to leapfrog directly to modern technology.
Explosive growth in India, China, and other developing nations is due to the Leapfrog Effect. India, for example, had 90 million cell phone users in 2005, up from just 3.6 million in 2000 according to the International Telecommunications Union. Leapfrog Effects can be seen throughout developing countries. What took us 200 years to invent, produce, install, improve, and upgrade is available to Leapfrog Effect nations now. Economic readiness is all they need to raise their standards of living and productivity. Global investors are ready to help and reap the rewards of rapid productivity growth.
Developing nations will continue to leapfrog ahead. They want cars, televisions, modern kitchens, good lighting, nice homes and offices, and all the other energy consuming products and services we take for granted. The frogs are hungry.
How can the world sustain this growth? Roughly 1 billion people have our modern standard of living. Another 3 billion people in China, India, and other nations are exploiting the Leapfrog Effect, a potential four-fold increase in energy demand.
Energy is the critical issue for the next few decades. If no action is taken, the world risks global recession and wars over oil and other resources. Oil has, or soon will, reach peak production, according to the Oil Dependency Analysis Centre.
Well-run countries throughout the world are concerned with the impact rapid growth will have on their and the world’s environment. They welcome solutions to the problems of pollution, global warming, and resource availability.
Energy is not just about who owns the oil, coal, or uranium mines, where the rivers flow fast, the wind blows strong, or the sun shines bright every day. It is about the knowledge that drives technologies for the gamut of energy products. It’s about efficiency, production, storage, transmission, installation, waste disposal, engineering, science, and development. It’s everything from light bulbs to trains to building materials to power plants to drinking water. Anything that makes or uses energy is in play.
America must become the world leader and innovator in energy technologies.
Our market is in the Leapfrog Effect nations. Developed nations are burdened with infrastructure; 50 year life-cycles on existing coal plants, 20 years on cars, and so forth. Developing nations can leapfrog directly to the new efficient technologies.
Let’s provide them with sustainable energy technology, create good jobs for Americans, support America’s ascendancy, make some money, prevent some wars, improve global health, raise global living standards, and save the environment, all at the same time.
In a global economy we want Americans to hold the high paying jobs and to own the patents. America is the world leader in computers; we must take the same lead in energy technology. We need to invent and deliver the systems, products, processes, and engineers that 3 billion people need. We can even use them ourselves.
Globalization presents unprecedented challenges. Companies are global. Work is done wherever it costs least. Better tools, methods, and processes compound each year to create efficiencies we call productivity growth. Leapfrog Effects are producing rapid productivity growth in developing nations. Productivity growth is the real profit investors are looking for but it can also cause job loss in mature industries.
We bemoan the loss of manufacturing jobs; something that has been happening steadily since manufacturing peaked just over 65 years ago. We blame China but China is feeling the Leapfrog Effect in their manufacturing jobs. The Conference Board reports that between 1995 and 2004 China lost 15 million manufacturing jobs compared to 2 million in the US. Rapid growth means rapid change in Leapfrog Effect nations.
This is not a new trend. U.S. census figures show steady declines first in agricultural, then in manufacturing jobs. At first, this is not too painful, but in later years the strain hits workers hard. For example, in 1810 84% of all workers were farmers. In 1820 79% were farmers, a net loss of 6% all farmers in 10 years. By 1970 just 3.8% were farmers. In 1980 that was down to 2.9%, a net loss of 24% of all farmers in 10 years! No wonder farmers protested. Imagine the difficulties Leapfrog Effect nations will encounter.
We are witnessing the beginning of the same trend in computers. Technological progress, careers, and investments will continue but it’s time to start planning our children’s future and the second careers of some of our computer experts.
Americans need to understand these trends so they can plan their lives. Our government needs to understand them so it can advance our common interests.
There are no easy answers but America excels as a nation when we have a challenge. Solutions must include those that can be adopted soon by the Leapfrog Effect nations.
Our success depends on taking the initiative. If we don’t Europe, Japan, or even the developing countries themselves, will.
America has an opportunity to retain its ascendancy, improve the environment, and do it all in an economically practical way that benefits not only Americans but the Leapfrog Effect nations as well. A stable global economy is in everyone’s best interest.
Any real solution to these global problems must be based on a sound economic model. Government has an important role to support our common objectives, communicate our global mission, and to facilitate the economic and ecological goals of the Leapfrog Plan.
Let’s go feed some frogs.
