Exponential Change and the Human Experience

Modern times are changing fast.  Humanity simply hasn't experienced this kind of change at this level before.  In the past most people lived and died in the same place as they were born and worked at the same job their whole lives.  No longer.  Young people today will likely have several careers throughout their increasingly long lives.

Look at these long term trends:

Hundreds of thousands of years (until around 150,000 BC): Early man
Tens of thousands of years (until around 10,000 BC): Hunter / gatherer societies
Millenia (until around 2,000 BC): Agricultural societies
Centuries (until around 1800 AD): Cities-state societies
Half-centuries (peaked before 1940 in U.S.): Industrial societies
Decades? (we don't yet know if we have peaked): Knowledge societies

Looked at with this perspective, it's easy to see why there is so much uncertainty in our modern society.  It is also easy to understand the desire for conservative ideas that look back to a simpler time.  Of course, each time comes with its own challenges and I don't think many of us would wish for a simpler time without modern medicine, clean running water in our homes, or reliable food supplies.

Humans, in my experience, can do incredible things if they understand the problems confronting them.  We are often at our best when things are at their worst. Take the response to natural disasters in which everyone pulls together to solve the pressing problems with amazing results.

Americans need to know about these trends and to be able to see their challenges in the context of this rapidly changing world.

Here are the key points every American needs to know:

Agricultural jobs make up less than 2% of the U.S. work force compared with 78% in 1820.

Manufacturing jobs peaked BEFORE World War II and are on a steady decline.

Manufacturing jobs are declining in China.  Better manufacturing methods require less people to make things, even in developing countries.  In fact, manufacturing jobs are going away faster in China than in the U.S.

Most Americans will have several careers in their lifetime.  We are seeing this today as displaced factory workers are forced to change careers.

The best jobs are always where knowledge, creativity, and thought are key elements.

Educating our children to think, not just to make things, is the way to continued American success.
 

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This page contains a single entry by Ken Benjamin, Leapfrog Effect Foundation published on March 19, 2008 7:27 AM.

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